What the Football Outsider stats say about Ezekiel Elliott and the

Cowboys O-Line Heading into Week 6 of the 2018 NFL season Authentic Demarcus Lawrence Jersey , the ground game is one of the few things that is working for the Cowboys offense. Ezekiel Elliott leads the league in rushing with 480 yards, is averaging almost 100 yards per game, and is running at a 5.2 yards/attempt rate, a career-high.Overall, the Cowboys are averaging 5.2 YPA on the ground, the second-best value in the league, and their ground game has contributed 13.56 Expected Points, the best value in the league by quite a margin. By contrast, the passing game has generated -16.63 Expected Points, the second-worst value in the league.But who should get the credit for the success on the ground, Elliott or the offensive line, and is such a differentiation even possible?To see just how much the blocking is contributing to Elliott’s overall numbers, we turn to our friends from Football Outsiders. FO have developed two specific metrics to evaluate blocking and rushing performance that we’ll look at below.Adjusted Line Yards:ALY penalizes an offensive line when a runner is tackled for a loss by adding 20% on top of the negative yardage (e.g. a run for -5 yards is credited with -6 yards, or 120% of the original value). It also gives progressively less credit for long runs, simply because the contribution of the line, once the runner hits the open field, quickly approaches zero.Therefore, the first four yards of a run are fully credited, the next six yards (the running back hits the second level between 5 and 10 yards out) are only credited with half the actual yardage and for all yardage beyond the 10 yard line (the running back is now in the open field) the offensive line doesn’t get any credit at all.Using Adjusted Line Yards (ALY), this is how the Cowboys offensive line performed so far this year, and how that compares to previous years: Yes, you read that correctly: as measured by ALY, the Cowboys O-line is just as good as it was in 2016 and 2017. Sure, it slipped by three spots in the team rankings, but that’s marginal. Over the last three years, the Cowboys’ offensive line has been clearing a path for significant chunks of yardage for Ezekiel Elliott and whoever else occasionally gets the ball in Dallas. So the question is, is the O-line making Elliott look good, or is Elliott good enough on his own, or is the answer somewhere in between?The running backsYou cannot evaluate running backs in isolation from their O-line. But while you can’t completely separate the effect the two position groups have on each other, you can approximate it by looking at the relationship between Adjusted Line Yards and Running Back Yards, which are the standard NFL yardage numbers we’re used to.Per the table above, the Cowboys’ running backs are gaining 5.02 yards a pop so far in 2018, the fifth-best value in the league behind the Jets (5.48), 49ers (5.26), Broncos (5.22) Womens Connor Williams Jersey , and Panthers (5.10). That’s pretty impressive any way you look at it.If you deduct the Adjusted Line Yards from the Running Back Yards you’ll get a good measure of how the running backs performed relative to the line, because by taking away the contribution of the offensive line, be it good or bad, you’ll get a measure of how good a running game a team has. The table below does that calculation for the top seven teams in 2018. The table above includes the Jets, Giants, and Falcons, teams that are a combined 3-12 and have some pretty bad O-lines, yet have a running game that gets a lot of yardage despite its O-line. The reason these teams show up so high here is a bit of a sample size issues. Players like Saquon Barkley (4 runs of 30+ yards) or Isaiah Crowell (4 runs of 30+ yards) have broken a few really long runs in the early part of the season, thereby inflating their team’s running back yards. Those numbers are likely to come down as the season progresses. Remember how ALY doesn’t include any yardage beyond ten yards? Well, the RB yards do, which is why teams with an over-proportional amount of breakaway runs tend to look quitegood when you subtract running back yards from ALY.The Cowboys are right up there in a second tier of teams with strong O-lines and and a positive differential between running back yards and adjusted line yards. Runners for these teams consistently get more yards than their O-line would warrant.But Football Outsiders offer more metrics than just line yards and RB yards. Here’s a look at what their other metrics suggest about the Cowboys’ ground game.Power SuccessIf you hated Garrett’s decision to punt on fourth down against Houston, this is the stat for you. Here’s what power success measures:YearRankPower SuccessNFL Avg Going by these percentages, the Cowboys would have had about a 71% chance to convert that fourth down, and that’s pretty much in line with where they’ve been the last two years. Sure, their ranking is lower, but that’s because the rest of the league has improved, not because of some sudden deficiency in the Cowboys run game.10+ Yards or Open Field YardsFO are calling all yardage beyond ten yards ‘Open Field Yards’. If you take Open Field Yards divided by total carries, you get an indicator for the ‘big-play ability’, or at least the ‘breakaway ability’ of your running game. Most breakaway runs happen when a running back scoots through a hole the offensive linemen opened, often assisted by some second-level blocking. If your backs are unable to get down the field with any regularity, chances are it’s the offensive linemen that are not making it happen. But that’s not an issue for the Cowboys, who regularly open holes for Ezekiel Elliott, which is one reason why he leads the league with 14 runs of 10+ yards.StuffedThe Cowboys running game was stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage on 20% of all runs, which ranks the Cowboys 18th in the league. That may feel woefully inadequate for a line that ranked fourth in this category last year, but that may simply be an effect of small sample sizes at this point. Last year’s O-line allowed a stuff rate of 17%, this year’s line is allowing 20%, a difference of just 3%. Based on the 130 rushing attempts this year, that percentage means the 2018 is off the elite pace set by the 2017 team by four stuffed runs over five games. I think they can live with that.SummaryA lot of the credit for the Cowboys’ success on the ground must go to the offensive line and their blocking. For all the discussion about Tyron Smith’s health, Connor Williams’ alleged lack of strength, Travis Frederick’s absence, or the endless hot takes about La’el Collins’ suitability at right tackle, the O-line is clearing ground for the running back at the same pace it did in 2016 and 2017. Statistically, there is no noteworthy difference between the three units in the ground game. But an equal amount of credit must go to Ezekiel Elliott, who produces beyond what the O-line is making possible, and producing at a better rate tan he has ever done. Taken together Authentic Dak Prescott Jersey , this has resulted in a ground game that produces at an elite level in the league.If only the passing game could keep up.10 thoughts on the Cowboys 26-24 victory over the Lions Man, did we need that one.The Dallas Cowboys are back at .500 after edging out the Detroit Lions 26-24 on Sunday. It was a nail-biter after the Lions jumped ahead 24-23 with just over two minutes to go in the game as fans everywhere were feeling that sucker punch that appeared to be the 2018 season. Then suddenly that gut-wrenching feeling turned to elation as the Cowboys answered with an impressive drive and a fantastic finish. The offense showed life, the defense showed weakness, and the special teams was special when it counted the most. Here are my 10 thoughts on the Cowboys win over the Lions.1. Career high for ZekeWhen your backs are up against the wall, that’s when it’s time to lean heavily on your best playmaker. And that’s exactly what the Cowboys did with Ezekiel Elliott on Sunday. Zeke not only rush 25 times for 152 yards (6.1 average), but he added four catches for 88 yards for a career-high 240 overall yards. The ground game was strong, but Elliott came away with two big plays as a receiver. Late in the first half, Zeke took a screen play to the house for a 38-yard touchdown. Then, he struck again late in the second half, on a wheel route when he made a great over the shoulder catch for a 34-yard gain that put the Cowboys in field goal range to win the game. Zeke was just an absolute beast on Sunday, putting this team on his back and carrying them to victory.2. Career high for TankDeMarcus Lawrence first pro sack came in the 2014 Wild Card game against the Lions. It was a big play that saved the game and helped the Cowboys advance to the Divisional round. That was the last time Lawrence played against the Lions.Well, he came up big against them again on Sunday. The Cowboys defense sacked Matthew Stafford three times and Lawrence had them all. That ties a career high in sacks for a single game as he also had three during a game in September last year as well. Lawrence would also record eight tackles, including six of them solo.Lawrence started fast last year and he’s doing the same thing again this season. It’s looking more and more like he’s going to get a big contract next offseason.3. Little man Tate was greatThe Cowboys secondary had all kinds of problems on Sunday, but they really struggled with stopping Golden Tate. The Lions veteran receiver had eight catches for 132 yards on the day, but most of the damage came on two big plays, both for touchdowns. The secondary appeared all out of sorts on each of those plays. On the first touchdown, Tate would cut outside causing cornerback Jourdan Lewis to slip, allowing Tate to get open and make the catch uncontested. Jeff Heath was there as a safety net, but a slight juke was all it took to send Heath to the carpet, resulting in a 45-yard score.Then, late in the fourth quarter, Tate would strike again after Anthony Brown didn’t play back far enough, allowing room for Stafford to fit the pass to Tate. Chidobe Awuzie was too far inside to help out, resulting in a 38-yard touchdown.The Cowboys secondary is all of a sudden having problems with their coverage. Seattle burned them a couple times last week and they were burned again on Sunday. This is a little alarming.4. Dak taking deep shotsIt was extremely exciting that Dak Prescott’s first two passes were both 30+ yards completions. Even though the drive stalled out with just a field goal, it was a good sign that Dak was going to make a concerted effort to throw the ball down the field. The coverage was actually pretty good on the 37-yard play to Michael Gallup, but Dak put the ball in the perfect spot and the rookie went up and made the play.Prescott was 17 of 27 passing for 255 yards for an average of 9.4 yards per attempt. It was his eighth highest Y/A game of his career. The Cowboys continue to emerge victorious when Prescott eclipses the 7.0 Y/A. Entering the game, Dallas is a perfect 18-0 when Dak averages over seven yards per attempt. Make that 19-0 now.The Cowboys had just three pass plays of 20 yards or more in the first three games. They had four against the Lions.5. I’m starting to like this Swaim fellaLast week, it was nauseating to see Geoff Swaim as the team’s leading receiver with five catches for 47 yards. He had more targets than any of the Cowboys wide receivers. Clearly, that is not the Cowboys formula for winning.Swaim would drop his production a bit on Sunday, but boy were they good use of his targets. He would catch a 31-yard pass for the offense’s initial first-down of the game. Then, Prescott would hit him for a one-yard touchdown to give the Cowboys a 20-10 lead late in the third quarter.Swaim isn’t this great athletic receiving tight end, but he has come along well as a reliable target for Prescott. Against the Lions, he had his longest reception of his career and his first ever NFL touchdown, and they were both on different plays. The Cowboys might have something with this guy.6. Heads up play by PrescottIt’s easy to feel good about the Cowboys final drive that set up the game winning field goal, but it shouldn’t get lost in how close they were to catastrophe. The Cowboys were facing a 2nd-and-3 when the Lions were able to knock the ball out of Prescott’s hands. Dak immediately located the ball and picked it up Womens Chidobe Awuzie Jersey , allowing him to scramble to the right and just throw it away. Dallas was able to convert on third down and the drive stayed alive.If the Lions recover the ball, the game is likely over. If Dak just falls on it, the Cowboys would’ve faced a third-and-long and the outcome might have been different. Prescott made a great play.That play actually made me think about the Tony Romo fumble in the end zone against the Lions that kept a fourth quarter drive alive in 2006. Romo scooped up his own fumble and was able to find Terrell Owens for the completion for a first down. Dallas would go on to score and win that game.7. Kerryon not utilizedLast week against the New England Patriots, the Lions broke an incredible streak of 70-straight games without a 100-yard rusher thanks to the strong performance by rookie running back Kerryon Johnson. All signs pointed to the Cowboys defense facing the daunting task of keeping him in check this week. But for some reason, the Lions didn’t use him very much.Johnson averaged 6.1 yards per carry which is the exact same average Zeke had in this game, but Johnson only had nine carries. Johnson scampered off for 32 yards on the game’s first play from scrimmage and had a punishing eight-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter, but there wasn’t a whole lot in between. Lions fans should be wanting some answers as they underutilized one of their better offensive weapons.8. Great play from the offensive lineEzekiel Elliott will get all the glory, but it cannot be stated enough in how well this offensive line played for Dallas. The Cowboys did a good job of pulling lineman and getting blockers out in space. Everyone was doing it. On the designed screen play to Zeke that resulted in a big touchdown, he had a convoy of blockers leading the way.Yes, that’s “Jumbo” Joe Looney running 40 yards down the field to block for Zeke. With wheels like that, that was easily his best Zeke impression to date.Not only was the blocking outstanding, but the offensive line showed a lot more discipline against the Lions. They didn’t commit a single penalty. No holding calls, no false starts, nada. The Cowboys did get called for an illegal block in the back, but that was on Elliott when he was blocking for Tavon Austin.All in all, the Cowboys only had two penalties for 20 yards, which was outstanding. Detroit, however, couldn’t get out of their own way.9. The lonesome kickerWhen you take the beloved Dan Bailey’s job away from him, that’s not a quick way to make friends among Cowboys Nation. When you miss your first ever NFL kick, people are pretty much not going to like you. But since that first miss, new Cowboys kicker Brett Maher (pronounced Maw-her) has made eight straight kicks. Against the Lions, he would knock down four field goals, including the game-winner as time expired.Maher’s 38-yard game winner was huge and that’s a kick Bailey has made countless times. Speaking of Bailey, the former Cowboys kicker would attempt his first kick with his new team on Thursday night as he knocked down a 37-yarder. However, if it would have been 38 yards, it might have been wide right. Man, that would have given me a heart attack if Maher did that on Sunday.The Cowboys front office might have known what they were doing by going with Maher. 10. Earl Thomas trade talks are officially overAfter tormenting the Cowboys last week with two interceptions, Earl Thomas’ season likely came to an end on Sunday after suffering a leg injury. Thomas has been scrutinized for wanting out of Seattle after not being offered an extension. He tried to play it safe, avoiding as much live action football he could during preseason, but alas - the grim reaper came calling on Sunday.While some fans were hoping the Cowboys would finagle some type of trade to bolster their safety position, that idea can officially be squashed. Thomas may still be a part of the Cowboys future, but he won’t be playing for them in 2018.